College Football September 15 Report

My three college football plays for the day are posted at Bang the Book and now will look at some of the other games.

UTEP at Tennessee: The total has climbed back to 49 after reaching 47.5 yesterday as there’s a 20% chance of rain and the area wasn’t hit by the hurricane as much as expected.

Mass at FIU: Good chance for thunderstorms here, but as we’ve seen, they’ll simply halt the game and resume later, so not sure how much it should come into your handicapping.

Florida State at Syracuse: Lots of touts on the Orange, but the line is moving the other way in a small reverse move.

Ohio vs. Virginia: I used the total on this ESPN2 game at Bang the Book and believe the Bobcats offer a little value getting 5.5 points on a neutral field, as the game will be played a Vanderbilt.

Tulane at UAB: A lot of touts on the Blazers in this one as a home dog.

Houston at Texas A & M: The total here has moved to 69 and I’d give a slight lean to the under, as this is one of the games I debated using for the College totals Play of the Week.

Alabama at Mississippi: The total has shot up from 63 to 70.5 in this one.

Missouri at Purdue: Purdue is another popular play with the touts today.

Monroe at Texas A & M: A lot of touts on ULM due to Texas A & M being off Clemson and before Alabama, but the talent difference here is huge.

Pinnacle Leans: The ‘Pinnacle Lean’ is a simple concept that a number of handicappers look at and is due to Pinnacle having the highest betting limits among books with excellent payout reputations, reduced juice and Pinny also welcomes professional bettors, unlike some offshore sportsbooks. They don’t accept US bettors, but several betting syndicates I know of have houses in Canada and simply have somebody there place bets. When Pinnacle has the line shaded one direction the majority of other sportsbooks don’t, it’s usually worth a second glance.

For Saturday, the games that fall under the ‘Pinnacle Lean’ are: Tennessee under, Minnesota under, Illinois under, New Mexico under, Texas A & M over and Florida over. Naturally, odds will change during the day, but that’s as of early Saturday morning.

 

 

College Football 9-1-18

The first full day of college football is here and my weekly three games are posted at Bang the Book. No, I don’t believe we’ll hit 70% there, which we did in 2016, as that was a once-in-a-lifetime run, but I am confident we’ll end up with another winning season when all is said and done.

If you read any of the three articles posted there for today’s action, you’ll see a few references to narrowing down the games being the most difficult aspect, so here are some thoughts on the other games on the card.

FAU at Oklahoma: Gave some consideration to FAU+20.5 in this one, as the Owls have some good athletes and can make some plays. Much bigger game for FAU than the Sooners.

Northern Illinois at Iowa: More of the same here, as I’d lean to the underdog, but don’t like the fact they’re receiving more than 50% of the wagers.

UNLV at USC: A few people I respect are on the Runnin’ Rebels plus the points in this one.

Old Dominion at Liberty: Liberty is playing its first FBS game, led by head coach Turner Gill, the former Nebraska Cornhusker. Could give ODU all they want and might be worth a look as a home underdog.

If I had to choose a favorite today, would likely look at West Virginia over Tennessee.

Weather:

50% chance of rain/thunderstorms at Rice.

40% chance of rain/thunderstorms at Ohio State and increasing as game goes on.

30% chance of rain/thunderstorms at Maryland, increasing as game goes on.

45% chance of rain/thunderstorms at Miami, Ohio, with 13 mph winds.

67% of rain/thunderstorms at Nebraska.

Not an all-inclusive look at weather, but a few of the notable games that stood out a little bit.