College Football September 15 Report

My three college football plays for the day are posted at Bang the Book and now will look at some of the other games.

UTEP at Tennessee: The total has climbed back to 49 after reaching 47.5 yesterday as there’s a 20% chance of rain and the area wasn’t hit by the hurricane as much as expected.

Mass at FIU: Good chance for thunderstorms here, but as we’ve seen, they’ll simply halt the game and resume later, so not sure how much it should come into your handicapping.

Florida State at Syracuse: Lots of touts on the Orange, but the line is moving the other way in a small reverse move.

Ohio vs. Virginia: I used the total on this ESPN2 game at Bang the Book and believe the Bobcats offer a little value getting 5.5 points on a neutral field, as the game will be played a Vanderbilt.

Tulane at UAB: A lot of touts on the Blazers in this one as a home dog.

Houston at Texas A & M: The total here has moved to 69 and I’d give a slight lean to the under, as this is one of the games I debated using for the College totals Play of the Week.

Alabama at Mississippi: The total has shot up from 63 to 70.5 in this one.

Missouri at Purdue: Purdue is another popular play with the touts today.

Monroe at Texas A & M: A lot of touts on ULM due to Texas A & M being off Clemson and before Alabama, but the talent difference here is huge.

Pinnacle Leans: The ‘Pinnacle Lean’ is a simple concept that a number of handicappers look at and is due to Pinnacle having the highest betting limits among books with excellent payout reputations, reduced juice and Pinny also welcomes professional bettors, unlike some offshore sportsbooks. They don’t accept US bettors, but several betting syndicates I know of have houses in Canada and simply have somebody there place bets. When Pinnacle has the line shaded one direction the majority of other sportsbooks don’t, it’s usually worth a second glance.

For Saturday, the games that fall under the ‘Pinnacle Lean’ are: Tennessee under, Minnesota under, Illinois under, New Mexico under, Texas A & M over and Florida over. Naturally, odds will change during the day, but that’s as of early Saturday morning.

 

 

April Dogs With High Totals

James Paxton.

April has traditionally been an above average month for baseball underdogs. Going back to the start of the 2004 season, betting every underdog would have yielded a 1983-2482 record and a profit of $4803. That’s definitely better than the flat-bet loss of $27,000 that favorite bettors would have amassed over the same period of time.

But if you were to look at those games where the total is 10 or higher, you’d have essentially the same profit, but a much better return on risk, as those games have gone 233-250, good for a profit of $4,722. The big difference is obviously in the amount of money risked. The return on risk when betting on all underdogs is 1.1%, while it’s nearly 10% (9.8%) by betting the underdogs in those games with high totals.

In 2014 through 2016, these games have gone 16-13 and have yielded a return of 18.3%. There have been no plays so far in 2017.

Underdogs fare better in games with high totals, but they tend to do even better right out of the gate and is something worth watching during the opening month of the season.