So far, not too bad in the Super Basketball League as we head into the playoffs, beginning with Tuesday morning’s semifinal game between Yulon and Pauian. Pauian is favored by 3.5 and the total has climbed a few points to 175.5. My numbers have this one 91-87 for Pauian.
It’s hard to predict how playoffs games will play out in the SBL. Will the games be normal or will the defense pick it up a little similar to the NBA? The last two games between these two have seen 189 and 200 points against higher totals. The game before that saw 235 points, so not really eager to play the under.
Neither team is playing well, Pauian lost four straight and Yulon has dropped its last two. Pauian at least has an excuse due to suspensions.
Will watch the first game before jumping in on the totals to see if the defense picks up. Would give the slightest of leans to Pauian in this one, but the edge is small, so better off just waiting until Thursday.
END OF APRIL 14 PICKS
The last two games of four straight days with Super Basketball League games is Easter Sunday, so we’ll take a look at those two games. Saturday saw the primary play come up short in a strange game, where there were two quarters of 50 or more points, but also quarters of 25 and 34 points.
Jeoutai Technology plays for the fourth straight day and Yulon is playing for a third straight day.
Jeoutai Technology at Taiwan Bank
Not sure how the fourth straight day on the court is going to treat Jeoutai, who has won their last two games. It’s not something you’re really used to dealing with when looking at games.
Taiwan Bank is favored by 6 and the total is 169, while I have Taiwan Bank winning 88-83, so pretty close to the current numbers. Taiwan Bank has won the last five games against Jeoutai by an average score of 96.2 – 84.6, so would probably lean to the over here if I was forced to do something.
Taiwan Beer at YULON
Taiwan Beer is favored by 3 with a total of 165 and I have them winning this one 88-81. Taiwan Beer has nothing to play for in this one, although you could have said that about their most recent games, yet they keep on winning. Their last loss came to Yulon back on March 31, so they do have a little incentive in that regard, losing by 21 points.
Taiwan Beer has won three of the last five games and the average score has been Taiwan Beer 82.8 – 76.6, as they have a couple of big victories of their own, winning 90-64 and 74-55.
Another tough game, but since it’s back to throwing peanuts and betting on which squirrel gets to them first on Monday, will give a slight lean to the favorite.
END OF APRIL 12 PICKS
I’ll admit to having a blast early Friday morning, following along with the SBL games. What I’ve learned so far is that lines can and will move and the two days I’ve played the SBL have seen some big moves on both days. On Thursday, it was a total that went from 167.5 to 170 and then all the way down to 165 before settling back at 167.
Friday, it was the Pauian game that saw Pauian go from 7.5-point favorites on Thursday night to 1.5-point underdogs Friday morning. They lost by four in overtime.
Yulon Luxgen at Jeoutai Technology Basketball Team
Saturday’s early game is an interesting one in that both teams were pushed hard Friday and both came away with victories. JTBT winning the previously mentioned game in overtime and Yulon winning 90-85 in their game with Bank of Taiwan. Yulon is favored by 3 and the total in this one is 174.5, while my numbers have Yulon winning 92-88, so the numbers like the over.
In the last five games between the two, the average score has been 186, with the median score checking in at 192. This will be the third straight day Jeoutai has been in action and the also play on Sunday, which is one of the drawbacks of playing in a five-team league.
The last time these two played the total was 169.5 and the game easily went over, so we’re being asked to pay a heavier price here, but think the over is probably the way to go in this one at the current number.
TAIWAN BEER AT PAUIAN
Pauian must have an injury or a suspension to be 12-point underdogs in this one, as I have it 85-80 for Taiwan Beer. But with the move in Friday’s game and this line, which is out of whack a bit, there’s something going on with the team. I did see somebody saying their best player was suspended just before Thursday’s game on Twitter, which would explain a few things.
The last five games between the two teams have seen an average of 167.8 points and a median of 169. Taiwan Beer is the best defensive team in the league and defeated Pauian by 27 less than a week ago, but were only favored by 5.5 in that contest, so this one is a bit of a reaction to that game. On March 31, Pauian defeated Taiwan Beer 94-75 as 4.5-point home underdogs.
Being short-handed against a good defensive team isn’t an ideal situation, although not entirely positive what’s going on, so will likely sit this one out. If I absolutely had to play it, would most likely lean to the under here.
END OF APRIL 11 PICKS
It’s the only game in town, so we’ll take a look at the Chinese Taipei Super Basketball League games for Friday, where once again we have two games on the schedule. Games are at 5 a.m. and 7 a.m. EST, so if you’re going to wager just to follow along or watch, you’re going to have to get up pretty early. But you can get pretty good scoring updates, as I found out this morning, following along both games a little bit just to try and get a feel for the league.
So far this season, from what I can gather, about 60% of the games have landed under the total, which really isn’t too meaningful and the amount of wagers the league received in games in January and February is likely quite a bit smaller than now.
The league scoring average is 83.58 and three of the five teams score fewer points than that. Two teams allow more than that. The best team in the league, Taiwan Beer is by far the best defensive team in the league, allowing 75 points per game.
bank of taiwan at yulon luxgen
5Dimes has Bank of Taiwan favored by 4 with a total of 173.5, while I have Yulon winning this one 91-87, so decent leans to the home dog and the over. Yulon has won three of the last five meetings between the two teams this season and outscored Bank of Taiwan by an average of 89.6-84.6 points.
When these two teams met on April 3 the total was 181.5 and it was an 85-82 final. Not sure if we’re seeing an overreaction to the final score of that one, but think the number here is a little low. Yulon isn’t playing well right now, having dropped their last three. Their defense hasn’t been good, so would give the over a little more weight than the home dog.
Pauian Archiland at Jeoutai Technology Basketball Team
JTBL is the doormat of the league, bringing a 5-24 record into this one. So little wonder than Pauian is favored by 7.5 and the total here is 166.5. I have Pauian winning this one by an 86-80 final score. JTBL was in action on Thursday, where they dropped a 78-69 decision to Taiwan Beer. Their starters did their job, scoring 48 points, but they only got 21 points off the bench. Taiwan Beer saw its bench players score 48 points in the game.
The numbers are a little too close for comfort in this one and will just stay away.