WNBA Daily Forecast 9/17/20

Two more single elimination games tonight, with the winners of Tuesday’s game in action against Minnesota and Los Angeles.

TeamLinePower RatingsEfficiency RatingsRecent Efficiency RatingsMath MethodRecent Math Method
Phoenix167Mercury 89-87Mercury 89-86
LynxLynx -4.5Lynx 82-82Lynx 86-84Lynx 85-83
Conn160.5Sun 81-80Sun 82-78
LALA -4.5LA 82-79LA 81-78LA 82-78

Phoenix vs. Minnesota: This one opened at Minnesota -2.5 and 165 and the Lynx have been driven up to 4.5 and the total has climbed a couple of points. All of the numbers have the Mercury covering and I’d agree, while four of the five have the game landing over the total. It’s probably the way to go, although it could be decided by how close this one is at the end and if one team is fouling or just playing out the remainder of the game.

Connecticut vs. Los Angeles: The sparks opened 4.5 and the number has stayed there, while the total has also held pretty steady even though we’re seeing a large majority of the wagers come in on the over. Would lean to the dog in this one, as well and the numbers are pretty much split on the total.

END SEPT. 17 PROJECTIONS

We begin the playoffs with a pair of single-elimination games tonight, along with two more of Thursday, so none of that best-of-7 stuff for the women. There’s a little intrigue in tonight’s games and the sharp bettors have made a stand in the Chicago game.

TeamLinePower RatingsEfficiency RatingsRecent Efficiency RatingsMath MethodRecent Math Method
Conn165.5
ChicagoSky -2Sky 83-82Sky 83-81Sky 85-85Sky 83-81Sky 83-83
Wash164.5
PhoenixMercury -4.5Mercury 87-82Mercury 84-81Mercury 81-78Mercury 85-81Mercury 81-77

Connecticut vs. Chicago: It’s been a bit of a disappointing season for Chicago, which was expected to do a little more than they have. The Sun weren’t expected to do much but have been a pretty solid team for the most part. While it seems like both teams would be a little bit tight, considering it’s one loss and your season is over, all of the single-elimination games managed to go over the number last year.  The Sky were favored by 3.5 when this one opened and the number has come down even though the betting is split. The numbers lean to the Sun and are split on the total. I’d lean to the Sun if I really had to play this one, although the value has pretty much been taken away.

Seattle vs. Phoenix: The Mystics won four straight to advance to the playoffs and I have them sneaking under the number in the majority of the methods. I’m split on the total but would lean to the under in this one if I had to play. For the side, a little hesitant to go against the Mystics, who are missing a couple of key players, but also have some players who contributed greatly to last year’s championship squad.

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